The study highlights an urgent need for faster carbon reduction and removal efforts, as peak warming could be much higher than expected under low-to-moderate emissions scenarios. The team used a new computer model, CLIMBER-X, to simulate future global warming, considering factors like methane emissions from wetlands and landfills. Despite efforts to reduce emissions, there’s still a 10% chance that temperatures will rise by 3°C (5.4°F) by 2200.
The study warns that feedback loops, like thawing permafrost and the growth of fire-prone vegetation, could exacerbate warming. Reductions in emissions may not be enough to stop these processes, and only very low emissions could meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to below 2°C (3.6°F).
The window for keeping global warming below 2°C is rapidly closing, and urgent action is needed. According
