The uneasy truth is that Trump’s maneuver turned trade policy into a dare. By promising tariff relief on one front while stoking pressure on another, he invited investors to believe in painless toughness—discipline without sacrifice. The March jobs shock exposed how fragile that fantasy was. A roaring labor market and resilient consumer spending are blessings in isolation, but paired with new trade frictions, they risk reigniting the very inflation the Fed has been straining to tame.

That’s the deeper wager now: that voters will tolerate another round of price spikes as long as paychecks keep coming, and that markets will keep reacting to each dramatic phone call as if the underlying math has changed. If tariffs morph from leverage into fuel, the bill arrives later, not never. And when it does, it won’t be settled in tweets or press conferences, but in mortgage payments, grocery aisles, and a credibility gap no rally can paper over.